SOBRIETY FROM MICHAEL BARONE – AT 8:51 A.M. ET:  Republicans were giddy after the recent elections, and look forward to control of the House, only days away.  But the giddiness was dented somewhat by a lame duck session of Congress that turned into a Democratic romp.

Now, Michael Barone, one of our most astute political observers, cautions the Republicans further, pointing out that Barack Obama will be no pushover in 2012.  Required reading for serious conservatives, from the Washington Examiner:

Several factors will likely work less strongly against Obama in 2012 than against the Obama Democrats in 2010. Turnout will be different, for one thing. We may see again the record turnout of blacks we saw in 2008. Young people who pretty much shunned the polls in the midterms may turn out and vote -- though the 34-point margin they gave to Obama was halved to 17 points for congressional Democrats in 2010.

The balance of enthusiasm favored Republicans and conservatives in 2010, as it had favored Democrats in 2006 and 2008. It could conceivably shift and favor the Democrats once again.

Another factor is that polls show that most Americans have favorable personal feelings toward the president. Bill Clinton and George W. Bush both happened to have personal characteristics that people on the other side of the cultural divide absolutely loathed. Obama doesn't.

And then there's the delicate issue of race:

Moreover, there will be a reluctance on the part of many voters, understandable in light of our history, to reject the first black president. I'm convinced, though I cannot prove, that Americans who feel this way far outnumber those few who cannot abide seeing a black man in the White House.

All of which does not mean that Obama is a sure winner. Polls suggest that if the election were held today he could lose to several possible Republican nominees who are much less well known and have weaknesses of their own. But they also suggest he could win.

The other side:

Working against Obama still will be substantive issues. Most Americans want to repeal Obamacare; he wants to keep it. Most voters rejected his vast expansion of the size and scope of government; he still thinks it's a good idea.

Obama came to office with the assumption that economic distress would increase support for his policies to (in his words to Joe the Plumber) "spread the wealth around." But the 2010 midterms make it about as clear as these things can be that voters reject such efforts.

COMMENT:  The conventional wisdom is that, if the economy improves significantly, Obama can drift to victory, especially as there's no obvious Republican candidate who has the charisma and public support to take on an incumbent president who is also a superb campaigner.  There is also the matter of serious divisions within the Republican Party.

But conventional wisdom is just that, conventional.  Between now and the 2012 election there could be major, unpredictable developments, especially in foreign affairs.  A mishandled terror attack here, Iran getting the bomb, North Korea going too far and provoking a military conflict – any of these could impact Obama's reelection.

Nothing is in the bag for the Republicans.  They must have two goals:  First, establish an excellent, creative, and positive legislative record, based on a popular set of principles.  Second, recruit and nurture presidential candidates who can win, rather than depend on "the next guy in line."  Tough orders.  Mandatory.

December 27, 2010